Two years ago I published a bunch of diaries on Senate races, with elaborate graphs.  

They're BAAAAACK!

Method:
 1.  I gathered polling data from Pollster.com and from brownsox's summaries.  I only included polls in 2008.
 2.  I assigned the undecided in two ways: 60% to the challenger (per general practice) and 50-50.  The first method is represented by solid boxes.  The latter method by hollow dots.  

 3.  I then added loess lines to all 4 series of boxes: Solid lines for the solid boxes, dotted lines for the hollow dots.  Good descriptions of loess (aka local regression) are here  (technical notes on local regression)

Here I track the states that pollster.com rates as "tossup" in the presidential election

I used all the polls I could find on Pollster (except internet polls) in 2008.  Each plot includes dots for every poll (red for Repub., blue fro Dem.) and four lines, each line is a loess smooth, one is more smooth and one less smooth.  The 'undecided' line is read on the right axis, and includes anyone who didn't pick McCain or Obama

Next week, we have a guest host, jimdotz who will discuss group theory.  
This week, we'll discuss a fascinating object that can be gotten just by adding: Pascal's triangle

   This series is for anyone.  There will be no advanced math used.  Nothing beyond high school, usually not beyond grade school.  But it'll go places you didn't go in elementary school or high school.

   If you "hate math" please read on.
   If you love math, please read on.

   I welcome thoughts, ideas, or what-have-you.  If anyone would like to write a diary in this series, that's cool too.  Just ask me.  Or if you want to co-write with me, that's fine.

   The rules:  Any math that is required beyond arithmetic and very elementary algebra will be explained.  Anything much beyond that will be VERY CAREFULLY EXPLAINED.

   Anyone can feel free to help me explain, but NO TALKING DOWN TO PEOPLE.  I'll hide rate anything insulting, but I promise to be generous with the mojo otherwise.

A lot of good teaching goes on at dailyKos.  But a lot of it doesn't get read by everyone who wants to read it, because diaries scroll by so fast.
This series is about diaries that teach and about things you want to learn.  Could be any subject - an academic subject, a skill, a hobby, almost anything - but not diaries that simply inform, or it would include all of daily kos.

Next week, I will be away, so if you'd like to guest host, let me know

Next week, I will be away and bilssha will be filling in.

If you like to trade books, try BookMooch.

I've started cataloging what I've read on shelfari

cfk has bookflurries on Weds. nights
pico has literature for kossacks on Tues. nights, but it's on hiatus (although he had one diary last week, and promises to return in August!)

sarahnity has books by kossacks, now its own series, on Tuesday nights

I'm learning disabled.  Always have been.  Always will be.  That's disabled, because there are some things that almost everyone can do that I cannot.

Recently, in reaction to the upcoming movie "Tropic Thunder" there has been a lot of discussion of the use of words, in particular, the word "retard" which is apparently used a lot in the movie.  Some people are proposing boycotting the movie.  Some people want to try to ban the word, or make is socially unacceptable.  

I think this is misguided.  If you'd like to know why, follow me below the fold

I've decided to start running some analysis for the presidential race.  I'm going to cover races that Pollster.com rates as "tossup".  Tonight: Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Indiana.

UPDATE

I just realized that I forgot to include dots for McCain.  The lines are correct, and the blue dots are also correct

I'll add the red dots for McCain next time

A few weeks ago, I wrote throwing money out the door: destroying the planet, risking blackout.  This is a follow up, and it's good news.

That diary noted that a lot of stores leave the doors open and the AC on.  It also noted that Clyde Haberman, of the NY Times, had made this a pet issue.

There has been a lot of criticism and praise for various ads by McCain, Obama, and others here on daily Kos.  Of course, everyone is entitled to his or her opinion, and each of us is free to express it here.  That's what makes this place great.

But I submit that most of what we say about these ads is irrelevant.  We are not the audience.

George Szell, speaking about Glenn Gould once said, "that nut is a genius!"

This was, if anything, even more true of Kurt Godel.  

This series is for anyone.  There will be no advanced math used.  Nothing beyond high school, usually not beyond grade school.  But it'll go places you didn't go in elementary school or high school.

If you "hate math" please read on.
If you love math, please read on.

I welcome thoughts, ideas, or what-have-you.  If anyone would like to write a diary in this series, that's cool too.  Just ask me.  Or if you want to co-write with me, that's fine.

The rules:  Any math that is required beyond arithmetic and very elementary algebra will be explained.  Anything much beyond that will be VERY CAREFULLY EXPLAINED.

Anyone can feel free to help me explain, but NO TALKING DOWN TO PEOPLE.  I'll hide rate anything insulting, but I promise to be generous with the mojo otherwise.

A lot of good teaching goes on at dailyKos.  But a lot of it doesn't get read by everyone who wants to read it, because diaries scroll by so fast.
This series is about diaries that teach and about things you want to learn.  Could be any subject - an academic subject, a skill, a hobby, almost anything - but not diaries that simply inform, or it would include all of daily kos.

If you like to trade books, try BookMooch.

cfk has bookflurries on Weds. nights
pico has literature for kossacks on Tues. nights, but it's on hiatus (although he had one diary last week, and promises to return in August!)

sarahnity has books by kossacks, now its own series, on Tuesday nights

Last week, I looked at unread great books.  I thought I'd do part 2 today, but there were way too many nominations for a poll, so, instead:

Top ten!  Name your ten favorite books or series.  Great or trashy.  Fiction or nonfiction.  Fun, serious, weighty, light .... go for it!

Two years ago I published a bunch of diaries on Senate races, with elaborate graphs.  

They're BAAAAACK!

Method:
 1.  I gathered polling data from Pollster.com.  I only included polls in 2008.
 2.  I assigned the undecided in two ways: 75% to the challenger (per general practice) and 50-50.  The first method is represented by solid boxes.  The latter method by hollow dots.  CORRECTION: I've done more research, and the 'incumbent rule' seems to be almost the opposite of the above.  I now assign undecideds either 60-40 for the challenger (sold boxes) or 50-50 (hollow dots).  This helps Democrats this year, as nearly every close race is for a Republican held seat.

 3.  I then added loess lines to all 4 series of boxes: Solid lines for the solid boxes, dotted lines for the hollow dots.  Good descriptions of loess (aka local regression) are here  (technical notes on local regression)

Probability, along with number theory, is one of the few areas of math where anyone can understand the questions.  In most areas of math, only a tiny subset of mathematicians (much less the general public) can understand them.  

And probability is full of perplexing problems and unexpected.  One of them is the birthday problem.

This series is for anyone.  There will be no advanced math used.  Nothing beyond high school, usually not beyond grade school.  But it'll go places you didn't go in elementary school or high school.

If you "hate math" please read on.
If you love math, please read on.

I welcome thoughts, ideas, or what-have-you.  If anyone would like to write a diary in this series, that's cool too.  Just ask me.  Or if you want to co-write with me, that's fine.

The rules:  Any math that is required beyond arithmetic and very elementary algebra will be explained.  Anything much beyond that will be VERY CAREFULLY EXPLAINED.

Anyone can feel free to help me explain, but NO TALKING DOWN TO PEOPLE.  I'll hide rate anything insulting, but I promise to be generous with the mojo otherwise.

A lot of good teaching goes on at dailyKos.  But a lot of it doesn't get read by everyone who wants to read it, because diaries scroll by so fast.
This series is about diaries that teach and about things you want to learn.  Could be any subject - an academic subject, a skill, a hobby, almost anything - but not diaries that simply inform, or it would include all of daily kos.

If you like to trade books, try BookMooch.

cfk has bookflurries on Weds. nights
pico has literature for kossacks on Tues. nights, but it's on hiatus (although he had one diary last week, and promises to return in August!)

sarahnity has books by kossacks, now its own series, on Tuesday nights

I got the idea for this week's diary from a comment by Frankenoid in last week's diary, where she asked us about great books we haven't read.  Of course, given the number of books, no one has read any but a small fraction.  But I'm talking about great books.  Even then, there's too many.  Lists of the "100 best" are full of books I haven't read.  So, let's make it "10 great books you haven't read yet".  I'm going to select books I actually might read and enjoy.

So, below the fold, I list my 10.  In the comments, you can do the same.  I'll round up the most mentioned books, and next week, we can vote

Two years ago I published a bunch of diaries on Senate races, with elaborate graphs.  

They're BAAAAACK!

Method:
 1.  I gathered polling data from Pollster.com.  I only included polls in 2008.
 2.  I assigned the undecided in two ways: 75% to the challenger (per general practice) and 50-50.  The first method is represented by solid boxes.  The latter method by hollow dots.
 3.  I then added loess lines to all 4 series of boxes: Solid lines for the solid boxes, dotted lines for the hollow dots.  Good descriptions of loess (aka local regression) are here  (technical notes on local regression)

Some notes:
 1.   For any poll and for either method, the percentages add to 100.  
 2.  If the hollow box is far from the solid box, then there are a lot of undecideds.

How many numbers are there?
Silly question, right?  They never stop!  

Let's talk about the counting numbers: 1, 2, 3, 4 ....

that ... means "and so on", and little kids know that there is no biggest number.  It's infinity.

How big is infinity?  How should we think about infinity?  Can we think about infinity in sensible ways that work with the rest of mathematics?  Are all infinities the same? When a math result requires dealing with infinity, is it necessarily nonsensical?

People have been thinking about these sorts of questions since at least the time of ancient Greece.  But their thinking was confused and contradictory until Georg Cantor came on the scene around 100 years ago.  Some of what he said is strange, and he himself was certainly strange, but his methods for dealing with infinity solve paradoxes that had confused people for at least 2,000 years.